Welcome to The Door to E. A series-style newsletter for people obsessed with exploring, explaining, and expanding ideas to unlock human potential. Each week, I publish around 3 chosen series that share ideas, experiences, and stories to help you design your life.
This essay is a part of the Mental Model Wednesday series.
Thank you for reading, and please forward this to anyone who you think needs to walk on the journey.
Dear Friends, Seekers and everyone else.
We change decisions all the time. “I want to have 1 newsletter” to starting 2 newsletters to separate my niche authority and general curiosity.
I also made the decision to shut down my writing business and go into more consulting side of things. You might have chosen to give up on dairy after someone gave you evidence, or change the shirt you are wearing because your partners told you "that color doesn't suit you".
And whatever people may think, changing your decisions, even the hardest ones, isn't a sign of weakness. Because I see and hear people stand on wrong decisions all the time, just because they made it.
The truth is, changing decisions without evidence is bad, but if you have the evidence, then well...
Changing decisions is okay
Most people don't change their decisions because they don't think in possibilities and probabilities, they think in decisive outcomes.
It is either "right or wrong", "up or down", or "yes or no".
This puts the brain in a perfection-seeking state and trains it to NOT MESS UP. We spend a lot of time, take the goals, and circumstances into account to make a decision.
But later if one of those circumstances changes, the decision falls flat, and most people can't fathom that. Since they put in the effort, they think that things are just hitting a bump, "we must stick to it and we will succeed."
But it makes no sense, to me at least, to not change a decision when you know it's lost its weight.
This is exactly where Bayesian Reasoning comes in.
What is Bayesian Reasoning?
Bayesian reasoning is just a fancy way of saying
To respond to new evidence and using conditional probabilities to update your current beliefs and find alternative outcomes.
What this means is, there is no right answer, as there can never be a right answer. Things change according to circumstances and everything should be treated as an experiment.
This is a tool for making decisions in uncertain situations, and on most occasions everything in life is uncertain.
Funny enough, this has always been the way I've dealt with fear of failing and other situations that would have led to disaster, I just didn't know it.
Here’s how you can use it in 7 steps
Step 1: Identify your prior belief
What did you believe when you made the decision, what did you believe about the situation and problem at hand?
These beliefs can be from personal experience, intuition or existing knowledge.
Step 2: Gather relevant evidence
This could include data from reports, opinions from experts, stories from leaders, or observations from introspection.
Step 3: Assess the reliability of evidence
Evaluate the credibility and the relevance of new evidence in your circumstance. Consider things like the source's expertise, biases, and quality of information provided.
Step 4: Update your beliefs
Add the new evidence to your existing beliefs. If the evidence supports your initial beliefs, it will strengthen your confidence in them. On the other hand, if the evidence contradicts your beliefs, you may need to adjust or even completely change them.
Step 5: Consider the strength of evidence
Some evidence may be more compelling or persuasive than others, so it's essential to weigh its significance accordingly.
But also put things through a filter of bias to see you don't favor something just because it seems right.
Step 6: Be open to revision
Remain open-minded and willing to revise your beliefs based on new evidence.
I once believed that I loved writing and could write for others, turns out I was wrong. I only love writing for myself and I suck at writing for others.
It took me a while to accept this and change myself.
Recognize that it's natural for beliefs to evolve over time as you encounter new information and experiences.
Step 7: Iterate as necessary
Repeat this process as needed, continually updating your beliefs as you encounter new evidence or circumstances. Bayesian reasoning is an iterative process that allows for ongoing refinement and improvement of your understanding of the world.
Final Words
Changing your beliefs and decisions will hurt you less than staying with whatever is not working and hurting you to begin with.
So once again
Identify prior beliefs
Gather relevant evidence
Assess the reliability of the evidence
Update your beliefs
Consider the strength of the evidence
Be open to revision
Iterate as necessary
As a matter of fact, don't even trust what I've written since I've written this from my point of view backed with my experience.
Test it out, cause changed a lot of my beliefs starting 2024.
until next time
Be weird and curiosity
S
P.S. If you are interested in info products and building an information-led creator business, check out Wide Thinker Letters. Series issues go out every Sunday.
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